Biofuel supplies are expected to grow 30% faster by 2028 than in the past five years, and Brazil alone is expected to be responsible for 40% of this expansion. These estimates come from the International Energy Agency (IEA), in a new report published today.
“Stronger policies are a key driver of this growth, as governments increase efforts to provide affordable, safe, low-emission energy,” the Renewables 2023 report says.
Companies like Be8 and Acelen are making billion-dollar investments to produce a new generation of renewable fuels, such as green diesel and sustainable aviation kerosene, or SAF.
Risen was the first ethanol producer in the world to obtain international certification for SAF production, last August.
Production volumes are still low, but variants of these new fuels should account for two-thirds of the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from aircraft by 2050.
In the short term, the vast majority of biofuels produced in the world, about 90%, will be directed to highways.
Brazil, which has already strengthened its position in the sugarcane ethanol market, is expected to see an increase in its position in corn-based fuel, with increased grain production attracting investors.
The National Corn Ethanol Union (Unem) expects an increase of 6 billion liters in fuel production in the 2023/24 harvest, 36.7% higher than the previous harvest. During this period, between R$15 billion and R$20 billion were invested in the entire corn ethanol chain, according to entity estimates.
Growth of renewable energy sources
Brazil also featured in the report because, in 2023, it renewed its annual record of installed renewable energy capacity, alongside the United States and Europe. The country should lead the sector in Latin America by 2028, being responsible for 108 GW of the additional 165 GW expected in the region, according to AIE projects.
Last year, installed renewable energy capacity rose by 50% globally, to 510 GW, of which solar generation was responsible for 75%. The most significant growth was in China, which alone installed as many solar panels in 2023 as the entire world in 2022.
The world is scaling up renewable energy generation faster than ever before, and if it accelerates, it has real potential to reach the goal agreed at COP28 of tripling global installed capacity by 2030, the International Energy Agency estimates.
“Under current market and policy conditions, global renewable energy capacity is already on track to grow 2.5 times by 2030,” said Fatih, AIE Executive Director. “It is not enough to reach the target of tripling these sources, but we are getting close.” . Birol, in a note.
In Brazil, as in most parts of the world, growth in electricity generation should come from solar, followed by wind. The agency expects the country to double its generating capacity during this period, compared to the past five years.
Worldwide, prices of photovoltaic panels have recorded an annual decline of approximately 50%, according to the agency, and the decline in costs and speed of implementation is expected to continue over the years.
“Despite regulatory changes, growth in distributed solar generation capacity in Brazil exceeds our expectations, resulting in a significant upward revision,” the document reads. This movement differs from other countries, where the more optimistic outlook was the result of improvements in public policies or auction structure in the sector.
Even taking into account the reduction in incentives, AIE is betting on two factors to expand distributed generation in the country: the increase in residential electricity tariffs since 2019 and the still low costs in the electric system. “So the combination of these factors means that the payback period for residential systems has increased only moderately, from an average of just under five years to about five and a half years, which is helping to drive growth.”
Here, as in the EU, the installation of small generation units, such as those used on rooftops, should exceed those on large solar farms as residential and commercial consumers seek to lower the price of their electricity bills, he believes. AIE.
In the opposite direction, there is growth in the wind Wild It should happen despite the difficult scenario for generators outside China. In the agency’s view, the combination of supply chain bottlenecks, higher costs and longer license periods will require stronger attention from governments.
Along with the record number of installations of renewable energy sources in 2023, the United States was able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1.9%, compared to the previous year, while its economy grew. The initial estimate was made by the Rhodium Group.
