With a new reduction, the 2023/24 grain crop estimate amounts to 306.4 million tons
Brazilian grain production is expected to reach 306.4 million tons. The fourth survey of the 2023/24 season, released by the National Catering Company (CONAP) on Wednesday (10), comes with a new decline in harvest estimates in the current cycle. In general, unstable weather conditions, with scarcity and poor distribution of rain accompanied by high temperatures in the central region of the country, in addition to heavy rainfall in the southern region, have caused and are still continuing to delay crop planting, in addition to negatively affecting the productive capacity of crops. . If confirmed, the volume represents a decrease of 13.5 million tonnes compared to what was obtained in 2022/23.
“The current harvest is characterized as one of the most complex crops to estimate area, productivity and production in recent times. “The difficulties can be summed up in climatic problems, which generate uncertainty and hinder decision-making by producers,” says Aroldo Antonio de Oliveira Neto, supervisor of the Agricultural information in Konab.
Soybeans, the main crop grown in the country, are expected to produce 155.3 million tons. The result represents a decrease in expectations by 4.2%, since the first forecast indicated a harvest of 162 million tons. Poor distribution of rainfall and high temperatures have had a negative impact on both agriculture and crop development. Climatic conditions were also critical for some producers to migrate to other crops, contributing to a reduction in area compared to the survey released in December.
Another important product for Brazilians, rice production is estimated at 10.8 million tons. If grain prices were incentives to increase area in some producing countries on the one hand, then on the other hand the delay in agriculture and the frequent rains or summer periods that occurred in different regions, in addition to the difficulties of cultural practices. , are variables to capture unfavorable effects on productivity.
As for beans, production is expected to stabilize compared to the last crop, with its yield reaching 3.03 million tons. However, the implementation of the first legume crop is nearing completion and is showing negative changes due to climate instability.
In the case of corn, total production is estimated at 117.6 million tons, a decrease of 10.9% compared to the previous cycle. This decrease reflects the small cultivated area and the expected deterioration in crop productivity. The first grain crop, which represents 20.7% of production, witnessed adverse conditions such as heavy rains in the southern states, and low precipitation accompanied by high temperatures in the Midwest. According to the CONAB bulletin, for the second grain crop, in addition to evaluating costs, producers’ decisions depend on climatic factors, the availability of a planting window and market prices.
As for cotton, the cultivated area is expected to grow by 6.2% during the 2022/23 season. With soybean cultivation in the country approaching 32%, the estimated area of about 1.77 million hectares may vary, as part of the area that should be replanted with soybeans in Mato Grosso could be used for fiber cultivation. It is currently expected that 3.1 million tons of feathers will be harvested.
With the end of the harvest season, wheat production reached 8.1 million tons. Until the start of the reproductive phase, climatic conditions were favorable for the crop, with prospects for a record crop similar to that of 2022. However, from September onwards, a period of heavy rains began and continued until harvest, a situation that caused productivity losses.
Market – Regarding information on market behavior for Brazilian commodities, the decline in soybean production estimates indicated by the CONAB Bulletin, driven by climate problems in the main producing states, should also mean a decline in the export of oilseed grains this year. Furthermore, the National Council for Energy Policy (CNPE) approved an increase in the ratio of biodiesel to diesel from 12% to 14%, indicating that there will be an increase in domestic demand for soybean oil.
For rice, the 2023/24 Brazilian crop is expected to be 7.2% higher than the 2022/23 crop, at 10.8 million tons. It is estimated that national consumption will remain at 10.3 million tons. A recovery in production and a decline in supply from important exporting countries are likely to increase Brazil’s export volume to 2 million tons. The imported volume is expected to remain at 1.5 million, due to the need to restore national supply. Stocks should remain close to stable, estimated at 1.7 million tons.
The estimated lower corn production for the 2023/24 season, combined with the greater supply available on the international market (amid the good North American harvest), should reduce the volume of Brazilian grain exports in 2024, but according to Conab and according to the bulletin, Brazil should It remains the world’s largest exporter of corn. As for wheat, although it was harvested only a little more than 8 million tons, due to climate problems there has been a qualitative loss and it will be necessary to import more wheat with a pH that can be baked, which will lead to an adjustment in the amount of imports from 6 million to 6.2 million Tons. With the changes, the 2023/24 wheat crop is expected to end with a carryover stock of 393.6 thousand tons.
The cotton area increased by 6.2% this crop, but the decrease in productivity, due to less favorable climatic conditions, is expected to make it slightly smaller than its predecessor and reach 3.1 million tons. The improvement in the performance of the national economy is aimed at enhancing domestic consumption of cotton lint in 2024, which is expected to reach about 730 thousand tons. As exports grow and are expected to reach 2.5 million tons, the final stock of cotton is expected to decline to 2.04 million tons.
