Copper mining could be a bottleneck in the transition to green energy



Copper cannot be extracted fast enough to keep up with current U.S. policy guidelines for converting the nation’s electrical and vehicle infrastructure to renewable energy, according to a new study.

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law in 2022, calls for 100% of cars manufactured to be electric by 2035. But an electric vehicle requires three to five times the amount of copper as an internal combustion engine vehicle; Not to mention the copper required. To modernize the electrical network.

“A regular Honda Accord needs about 40 pounds of copper. The same Honda Accord electric battery needs roughly 200 pounds of copper. Onshore wind turbines require about 10 tons of copper,” says Adam Simon, a professor of earth and environmental studies at the University of Michigan. “In offshore wind turbines, this amount could be doubled.” “We show in the paper that the amount of copper required is impossible for mining companies to produce.”

For the study, Lawrence Cathles, a researcher at Simon and Cornell University, examined 120 years of global data from mining companies and calculated how much copper the U.S. electricity infrastructure and automobile fleet would need to upgrade to renewable energy. It found that copper’s renewable energy needs will exceed what copper mines can produce at the current rate.

The shortage is due in part to the permitting process for mining companies. The average time between discovering a new copper mineral deposit and obtaining a permit to build a mine is about 20 years, according to Simon.

Copper is mined by more than 100 companies operating mines on six continents. The researchers derived data on global copper production going back to 1900, which told them how much global copper mining companies had produced over 120 years. They then modeled how much copper mining companies would likely produce for the rest of the century.

The researchers found that between 2018 and 2050, the world will need to extract 115% more copper than was extracted in all of human history up to 2018 just in order to meet “business as usual.”

This would meet our current copper needs and support the developing world without considering a shift to green energy.

To meet the copper needs needed to electrify the global vehicle fleet, up to six new large mines will need to be commissioned annually over the next several decades. About 40% of the production from new mines will be needed to upgrade the grid related to electric vehicles.

“I’m a big fan of the Inflation Act. I think it’s great. I’ve got solar panels, batteries and an electric car,” says Simon. “I’m very ready for the energy transition. However, this must be done in a way that is achievable.”

Instead of converting the entire US vehicle fleet to electric, researchers suggest focusing on manufacturing hybrid vehicles.

“We hope this study will be embraced by policymakers who should consider copper as the limiting factor for the energy transition, and think about how to allocate copper,” Simon says.

“We know, for example, that a Toyota Prius actually has a slightly better climate impact than a Tesla. Instead of producing 20 million electric cars in the US and globally, and 100 million battery electric cars every year, would it be better to focus To build 20 million hybrid cars?

The researchers also point out that developing countries will need copper to build infrastructure, such as building an electrical grid for the approximately one billion people who do not yet have access to electricity; Providing drinking facilities with clean water to about two billion people who do not have access to clean water; and wastewater treatment for the four billion people who do not have access to sanitation facilities.

“Renewable energy technologies, clean water, wastewater, electricity – they can’t exist without copper,” Simon says. “It then ends up being a tension between how much copper we need to build infrastructure in less developed countries versus how much copper we need for the transition in energy”.

“We believe our study highlights the potential for significant progress to reduce emissions in the United States. However, the current — almost unique — focus on downstream manufacturing of renewable energy technologies cannot be met by mine production of copper and other metals without a complete change in the mindset around mining.” Between environmental groups and policy makers.

Source: University of Michigan

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