Currently, no improvement is expected until the second half of January. High temperatures and lack of water are a deadly combination for plants, which is why damage has already begun to be seen in corn and soybean plots, on which the agricultural economy practically depends.
Christian Garavaglia, The meteorologist from Meteored Argentina detailed this in his latest report “In these first days of 2025, Argentina and the entire southern region of South America have entered a classic regional spreading pattern associated with La Niña at this time of year.” In addition, he highlighted “the prevailing stability in a large part of the national territory, which prevents the arrival of cold fronts and the formation of precipitation towards the central part, leaving convective activity restricted and greatly enhanced over the northwestern region and Cuyo, especially in the mountainous regions.” Occasional storms that manage to form in isolation towards the center of the country respond to intense surface heating combined with small atmospheric disturbances at altitude, but not the frontal system that arrives to cause a change in air mass.
Without rain in the central region of the country, yield prospects are weak. In fact, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange warned in the weekly Agricultural Panorama that with more than 90% of soybeans planted on a total area estimated at 18.4 million hectares, 81% of them have a water condition between adequate and ideal. This number is declining (7 points compared to the previous report) and may worsen in the coming days. As for corn, 87.4% of the 6.6 million hectares have already been planted. Estimated for the current campaign and also suffers from the consequences of lack of rain. According to the Stock Exchange Commission. “The proportion of crops with water status defined as ideal or adequate decreased by 6.8 percentage points, due to higher temperatures and decreased rainfall in the central-eastern part of the agricultural region. This situation has affected soil moisture, although it has not yet generated significant impacts on crop development, except in the southern region, where symptoms of water stress, such as yellowing of basal leaves with possible declines in performance, are beginning to appear.”
This same situation has just been confirmed by the Agricultural Risks Office of the Ministry of Agriculture, by confirming that “a decrease in the water content in the soil is generally observed, as a result of two weeks with predominance.” Areas with little rainfall. Above all, in the province of Entre Ríos there is a shift from normal reserves to deficits.
next to, The report highlighted that early-planted corn found in northeastern Buenos Aires is mostly in full bloom and beginning to fill grains. It is very important that rainfall occurs, as the first batches are observed beginning to dry at the base of the plants. Meanwhile, south of Santa Fe, La Pampa, southwest of Buenos Aires and northeast of Buenos Aires are in a similar situation.
Markets are on alert
The decline in international prices forces us to adopt different strategies, especially for Argentine producers, who, unlike in Brazil or the United States, suffer from the consequences of lack of rain at the crucial moment of the electoral campaign.
As Enrique Erizzi, president of consulting firm Novitas, explained, “Chicago is not reacting at the moment.” It so happens that “market fundamentals are bearish. In this context, the US government has allocated “additional” aid to its farmers worth $31,000 million (almost an Argentine crop). For its part, Brazil devalues its currency and its producers breathe a sigh of relief. In China, the yuan does the same (and this improves its purchasing power). Here, in Argentina, the agricultural producer is concerned and disturbed by his very negative relative position compared to his competitors.
In this context, producers are likely to decide to buy time and wait to decide what to do with the production they can obtain. According to Erez, “17 million tons of old soybeans (35%) remain unpriced. Of the new wheat and with harvest virtually complete, only 4.8 million metric tons (25% of estimated production) have a price. For its part, of projected corn production for 2024/25, a price of less than 3% was quoted in mid-December (unpublished). Of new soybeans, none yet: with the price already set there are less than 500 thousand tons (versus 3 million metric tons on the same date last year).
The very short-term outlook is based on what the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will publish next Friday in its World Grain Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, where soybean and corn crop reductions could be announced in Argentina and the US. Countries.
What do meteorologists say for the rest of January?
The Agricultural Climate Outlook report just published by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicated that the “weak La Niña” episode (as the entity calls it) is expected to start fading at the beginning of the fall of 2025, but unfortunately, it will also begin to fade. It is expected that the polar circulation will be reactivated early, which will activate drought again in a large part of the agricultural region of the Southern Cone and cause a thermal system with large fluctuations that will combine late heat and cold. Early, with the risk of local and general frost formation.”
Right now, the news is not encouraging. According to Garavaglia, He added: “The persistent heat will continue to play a major role, in addition to the noticeable absence of rain over central and northern ArgentinaThis ongoing pattern is expected to reverse by the second half of January, as some forecast models are beginning to indicate.
