Electric cars are accelerating towards 50% of global sales

There’s usually no connection between clean energy and Mark Twain, but it’s appropriate to paraphrase his famous quote: Reports of the death of electric vehicle sales are greatly exaggerated.

Data from the International Energy Agency’s 2024 Global Electric Vehicle Outlook makes sentiment-based reports about the demise of electric vehicle sales look ridiculous – global electric vehicle sales could reach 17 million in 2024, meaning more than one in five Cars sold around the world will be electric.

The growing demand for clean and cheap electric vehicles during the remainder of this decade will completely change the global automobile industry. By 2035, the International Energy Agency predicts that 50% of all cars sold globally will be electric, which will reduce oil demand by 6 million to 10 million barrels per day, equivalent to the current amount used for road transportation in the United States.

The price gap between electric vehicles and fossil-fueled internal combustion engines has narrowed so quickly that initial selling prices barely differ. With cheap electricity replacing expensive oil costs, drivers can save significant amounts by driving electric.

This is huge news for reducing consumer costs, creating new jobs and investment, and cleaning the air.

Everyone, everywhere, wants to save money and breathe cleaner air. Soon, everyone, everywhere will have the option to make their next car a clean, cheap electric car.

Electric vehicle sales are accelerating in all major markets

The IEA’s annual Global Electric Vehicle Outlook identifies and assesses recent developments in global electric mobility. The International Energy Agency is the world’s leading authority on all energy trends, which means these forecasts are not just an exaggeration, they are data-driven.

Recent news reports have heralded a drop in sales to herald the end of the electric vehicle revolution, but the actual numbers couldn’t be further from those sentiment-based headlines in the world’s three largest auto markets.

Electric car sales this year in China, the world’s largest car market, are expected to reach 10 million cars, roughly 45% of total car sales in that country. In the United States, the world’s second-largest auto market, electric vehicle sales are expected to rise by 20% compared to 2023, reaching nearly 11% of total new car sales. In Europe, the world’s third-largest car market, electric car sales could rise by 10%, to account for 25% of total sales.

New car sales eventually lead to the delivery of entire fleets, and the International Energy Agency predicts that by 2030, electric vehicles will make up 33% of all cars on the road in China while 20% of all cars on the road in the US and EU will be electric.

Smart electric vehicle policy breaks down barriers to ownership

The key to these sales is a combination of smart policy and maturity across the entire electric vehicle industry. The IEA notes policies in the three major auto markets – China, No. 14^y The Five-Year Plan, the US Low Inflation Act, and the EU’s Net Zero Industry Act gave automakers the political certainty needed to make long-term investments that would lower costs while adding supply.

More than 20 automakers worldwide representing 90% of global vehicle sales have set electrification targets, and in 2022-2023, electric vehicle and battery manufacturing investments total $500 billion.

Electric vehicle costs are falling as technology improves and manufacturing expands, with most electric vehicles sold in China being cheaper than internal combustion engines and cost parity expected by 2030 in all other major markets outside that country.

Even when the upfront costs of EVs aren’t cheaper than gas-powered cars, EVs are often still cheaper to own — leasing an EV is the cheapest way to buy a new car in the U.S., and charging an EV is cheaper than filling up an indoor car. – Sedans, SUVs or combustion engine trucks in every US state.

Global battery recycling capacity reached 300 GWh in 2023, and could exceed 1,500 GWh in 2030, more than tripling the supply of batteries that can be recycled that year as electric vehicles reach the end of their life.

Global public charging installations rose 40% in 2023 compared to 2022, with fast-charging station additions outpacing slow-charging stations.

So the four main barriers to electric car ownership – availability, cost, charging, and waste – are all on the way to being overcome. No wonder the IEA is so optimistic about the future of electric vehicles.

In the US, electric car sales are already great

These trends are all evident in the United States, no matter which headlines you read.

While Tesla’s sales may have declined, other brands increased their sales, partially offsetting the decline. For example, Ford electric vehicle sales have nearly doubled since the beginning of the year, total sales across the country rose in the first quarter of 2024, and nationwide electric vehicle sales have grown every quarter since 2021.

Energy innovation models show that post-CAB EV sales are actually at the high end of initial estimates, and on track to meet transportation sector emissions reduction targets. This may be due to average transaction prices for EVs in the US falling to just under $51,000 in December 2023, closing the cost parity gap with gas-powered vehicles to just $2,000.

Federal policy is also strengthening the rest of the EV ecosystem. Since the signing of the inflation-reducing bill, automakers and battery manufacturers have announced construction of nearly $88 billion in new electric vehicle and battery plants.

The United States now has 8,200 public fast charging stations, or one fast charger for every 15 gas stations. That number is sure to rise thanks to $7.5 billion in electric vehicle charging money allocated under the Infrastructure and Jobs Investment Act to build a national network of at least 500,000 public chargers by 2030 — all part of the Biden administration’s clean energy strategy.

Electric cars reduce costs and clean the air

Big oil CEOs have taken advantage of volatile energy prices caused by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to cause gas stations to suffer, raking in more than $238 billion in profits in 2021 and $451 billion in profits in 2022.

Evidence from the Federal Trade Commission shows that the rise in oil prices from 2021 to 2023 was due to collusion between oil companies, costing the average American family of four between $2,000 and $4,000 in 2021, or between 15% and 30%. % of all inflationary cost increases that year. .

It is no surprise that consumers are choosing electric cars – electric driving is the most direct way to take personal action against price gouging by oil companies and break out of the fossil fuel spiral, because electricity prices are lower in comparison and have remained stable over time.

Driving an electric car is also an easy way to breathe cleaner air. Exhaust pollution from internal combustion engines is concentrated around major roads and harms people’s health through asthma, cardiovascular disease, poor lung development in children, and premature death.

So don’t trust feelings when it comes to electric car sales. Your wallet and lungs will thank you later.