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RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Goals for 100 percent electric vehicle adoption by 2035 cannot be achieved without an unprecedented acceleration in copper mining, according to International Energy Forum Secretary-General Joseph McMonigle.
Copper is the most important metal for societal development, but the world’s growing electricity needs cannot be met if limited supplies of copper are absorbed by huge requirements for electric vehicle batteries, according to a new report published today by the International Energy Forum.
“Under current copper mining policy settings, it is highly unlikely that there will be enough additional new mines to produce 100% electric vehicles by 2035, which is just a first small step towards decarbonisation. So we “We need to manage this transition.”
“To make the most of available copper supplies, governments must prioritize widespread economic electrification, which is the foundation of climate policy. Furthermore, governments need to incentivize and support new copper mine projects because without them, 100 percent electric vehicle adoption will not be a goal.” achievable.
The report “Copper Mining and Vehicle Electrification,” prepared by leading experts Lawrence M. Cathles and Adam C. Simon, Historical Trends in Copper Demand and Mine Production. It shows that despite the availability of copper resources, achieving 100% electric vehicle manufacturing by 2035 will require unprecedented rates of mine production.
The report notes that in order to meet business-as-usual trends, without full reliance on electric cars, the world must mine more copper in the next 30 years than it has in all of history to date. The electrification of the global vehicle fleet will necessitate the opening of 55 percent more new mines than already anticipated.
“We believe the electric vehicle industry will remain an important part of the market and should continue to thrive based on consumer preferences and a growing range of available vehicles, but 100 percent adoption by 2035 is unlikely,” McMonigle said.
Copper plays a vital role in the generation, distribution and storage of electricity, and electricity is one of the most effective ways to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. But the huge copper requirements for electric vehicle batteries will compete with the electricity needs of countries in the early stages of development.
“The demand for copper to manufacture electric vehicles could increase the price of copper very significantly and significantly hinder the progress of less developed regions,” the report says.
Electric vehicles require 60kg of copper versus 29kg for a hybrid electric and 24kg for a combustion engine vehicle, so converting the global vehicle fleet to hybrid will have a minimal impact on copper demand.
The report cites a February 2024 report by the US Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy showing that electric and hybrid vehicles scored similar scores based on their cost to human health from air pollution associated with vehicle manufacturing and disposal, and the production and distribution of fuel or electricity. and vehicle exhaust emissions.
The IEF report provides detailed forecasts of copper demand and supply, showing a significant increase in copper mining demand between 2018 and 2050.
“Over a 32-year period, the world will need to extract 115% more copper than was extracted in the entire history of humanity up to 2018,” the report says. “Future production from existing and new copper mines is mostly necessary for the developing world to catch up with the developed world.”
The report’s baseline copper supply projections, based on historical trends, see supply rising 82% by 2050, reaching a peak in 2086, and then declining sharply. However, the report also cites projections based on copper projects, which show a decline in supply by 2026.
The report argues that mining should be recognized as essential, and responsible exploration and development of copper mines strongly encouraged.
It highlights several constraints to scaling up copper supplies, including limited access to land for mining, low discovery rates, and a 23-year deadline for mines to enter production. Even when significant copper resources are discovered, many governments have proven reluctant to approve mining permits.
In North America, applications for mining licenses were canceled in Alaska, Minnesota, and Panama, delayed in Arizona, and large tracts of land designated for exploration in Minnesota were cleared. The report highlights the status of an underground copper project in Arizona that will be the largest in North America, producing 500,000 tons per year.
“Although it was approved by the US Congress in 2014, it has not yet received approval to start copper production,” the report said.
The report says the mining industry will need to explore and drill deeper to obtain the copper the world needs. Deep subsurface mines like Resolution can be mined remotely, are safer and have a smaller environmental footprint.
Article from the International Energy Forum.
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