ISO New England: Vermont expected to add more than 120,000 electric vehicles by 2033

    Vermont intends to increase solar energy production by 60 percent over the next 10 years, adding 120,000 electric vehicles during that period, while electric heating (heat pumps, etc.) is expected to increase nearly tenfold over the next decade.

Vermont Business Journal Over the next decade, ISO New England expects an approximate 17% increase in energy demand on the electricity grid. This is primarily due to the electrification of the heating and transportation sectors, representing a decisive shift in energy consumption patterns. Vermont intends to increase solar energy production by 60 percent over the next 10 years, adding 120,000 electric vehicles during that period, while electric heating (heat pumps, etc.) is expected to increase nearly tenfold over the next decade. The findings, published this week in the 2024-2033 Capacity, Energy, Load and Transmission Outlook (CELT Report), serve as a resource for system planning and reliability studies.

the CELT Report It delves into the various factors shaping the region’s energy landscape, including economic growth, weather trends, state-level carbon reduction targets and the adoption of technology such as electric vehicles and air source heat pumps.

The report provides insights on a country-by-country basis.

ISO load forecasters studied projected economic growth, historical weather patterns, expected adoption of technology such as distributed solar photovoltaics (PV), electric vehicles (EVs) and air source heat pumps, and nationwide carbon reduction targets to develop 2024-2033 Capacity, Energy, Load and Transmission Forecast Report (CELT Report)which serves as a primary resource for ISO system planning and reliability studies.

Report components include:

  • Long-term forecasts of energy consumption and peak demand, which account for the impacts of electrification, energy efficiency (EE), and behind-the-meter (BTM) PV generation.
  • The potential output of resources participating in the Forward Capacity Market (FCM), as well as the total resource generation capacity in the region
  • Distribution of area generators by fuel/unit classification
  • Link to a list of proposed, planned, and under construction transportation projects

Changes in regional electricity use since 1995

Annual net energy use in New England grew steadily between 1995 and 2005, driven primarily by increased economic growth and use of air conditioning. Since 2005, annual net energy use has trended downward primarily due to increased energy efficiency from advanced cooling and heating technologies, energy-efficient appliances and lighting, and the increasing prevalence of BTM solar generation.

However, ISO New England predicts that this trend will reverse in the next decade. ISO forecasts steady growth in annual net energy use, as state policy goals to reduce carbon emissions drive increased electrification of heating and transportation systems in the region.

Improve input assumptions and methodology

ISO’s innovative load forecasters are constantly improving their methods and assumptions to keep pace with emerging trends.

Updates since the 2023 CELT report include capturing the impact of new managed charging programs, which incentivize consumers to charge personal electric vehicles outside of peak demand hours.

ISO New England is also continuing to develop methods that better reflect partial electrification for building heating, which assumes that consumers will also use a non-electric backup heating source during extremely cold weather. These improvements will provide a more accurate picture of how consumers use electric heat pumps, since these devices often complement rather than replace existing oil furnaces or wood stoves.

Each year, the ISO evaluates the accuracy of last year’s forecasts and adjusts inputs accordingly. Over the past decade, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has observed a disconnect between economic growth and electricity demand; In recent years, this has led to over-predictions from energy models. As a result of this benchmarking, the 10-year annual energy forecast curves for 2024 are slightly lower than those in the 2023 report, partly due to a more precise approach to developing economic model inputs.

Victoria Rojo, Principal Data Scientist on the Load Forecasting Team at ISO, talks about the CELT report in this ISO Minute video.

New England Electricity Forecast for 2024-2033

The results of the ISO’s EE forecast and solar photovoltaic (PV) forecast are applied to Overall long-term outlook To develop aNet long-term outlook. The net forecast represents the actual energy that will be delivered, as EE and BTM PV underestimate the amount of electricity consumers withdraw from the wholesale power system.

Public use of electricity in New England

Total annual usage (GWh)20242033
Net expectations119,179140,001
  • Annual net energy use is expected to grow by 1.8% annually over the ten-year period.
  • Energy efficiency programs participating in the region’s wholesale electricity markets are expected to reduce electricity use by 10,618 gigawatt-hours this year and 11,210 gigawatt-hours in 2033.
  • BTM PV is expected to reduce grid electricity consumption by 5,444 GWh this year, rising to 9,975 GWh in 2033.
  • Electric vehicles are expected to account for 15,182 gigawatt-hours of energy use in 2033, while electric heating is expected to account for 7,996 gigawatt-hours that year.

Seasonal peak demand

Peak demand is a measure of the highest amount of electricity used in one hour, and the CELT report includes forecasts for both summer and winter peaks. Traditionally, the expected annual peak in New England occurs during the summer. ISO New England analysts use historical data on typical peak weather conditions to develop a 50/50 forecast, meaning there is a 50% chance that peak demand will be higher or lower than forecast. By 2033, ISO New England projects that the 50/50 winter net peak will nearly match the 50/50 summer net peak as heating electrification accelerates.

The 90/10 forecast – which reflects hotter, wetter peak conditions in the summer and colder temperatures in the winter – means there is a 10% chance that peak demand will be higher than expected.

Peak summer demand (MW)20242033
50/50 net forecast24,55327,052
90/10 net forecast26,38329,007
  • Under typical summer weather conditions, net peak demand is expected to increase at an annual rate of 1%. For hotter weather, the net peak is expected to rise by just under 1% per year.
  • The net forecast includes 50/50 BTM PV summer peak demand reductions of 1,097 MW this year, rising to 1,284 MW in summer 2033.
  • EE is expected to reduce summer peak demand 50/50 by 1,775 MW this year, and by 2,023 MW in 2033.
  • Transportation electrification is expected to contribute 2,334 MW to summer peak demand with a 50/50 split in 2033.

Peak winter demand (MW)2024/20252033/2034
50/50 net forecast20,30826,768
90/10 net forecast21,08928,270
  • Under typical winter conditions, net peak demand is expected to rise by an average of 3.1% annually during the winter of 2033/34. As for cold weather, the net peak is expected to rise by 3.3% annually.
  • Transport electrification is expected to contribute 3,348 MW to the 50/50 winter peak and 3,440 MW to the 90/10 winter peak in 2033/34.
  • Heating electrification is expected to contribute 3,604 MW to the 50/50 winter peak and 4,356 MW to the 90/10 winter peak in 2033/34.
  • BTM PV does not reduce winter peak demand, because the peak usually occurs after sunset.

Source: 5/14/2024. ISO New England One sullivan road | Holyoke, MA. Web

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